The Luke Report

2010-01-30T14:29:00.000-08:00

Alex Rodriguez spoke recently about the prospect of “retirement staring him in the face” last spring, when he underwent surgery for torn cartilage in his hip. Scary stuff!

At the time, A-Rod opted for a lesser surgery than doctors initally recommended, so that he could get back on the field faster. The doctors obliged, but also believed he’d need a second surgery after the 2009 season to complete the repairs. As it turns out, though, the hip healed on its own, and A-Rod was his typical dominant self on the road to the first World Series title of his career.

It’s really quite stunning when you think about it, and is a great testament to A-Rod’s commitment and recuperative powers. He took a lesser surgery, got back on the field sooner than expected, performed at a world-class level, played a full extra month, and the hip healed on its own! I don’t want seem jealous, but sometimes I just sigh to myself and wonder why it seems like God likes some of us better than others.

And if God’s isn’t involved here, then it really just shows that A-rod isn’t like the rest of us. If you’ve had surgery or a serious injury, you know there’s nothing you can do to make it heal faster except let the process run its course. It’s not like there’s a pill you can take, or some injectable substances that make injuries heal faster and allows you to perform at a high physical level on a day-to-day basis through the healing process. Nature cannot be manipulated according to the cycle of a baseball season, people.

Sure, it would be nice if, after five months of playing on a patched up hip that needed further surgery, you could petition mother nature, or even a doctor or something, for some kind of magic boost or substance, like Gummi Berry juice, that would allow you to play at an even higher level for another month. Particularly if it was a really important month for your team. And a really important month for you personally, because you’d traditionally taken a lot of heat for failing in similar situations. But nature doesn’t work like that. Healing has to run its course, and most of us would have suffered physically and shown wear and tear and probably required that second surgery. Especially those of us in our mid-30s, an age when the body tends not to bounce back so fast anymore. It’s a different story for 34-year-old A-Rod, though.

That’s why they pay guys like A-Rod the big bucks, am I right? They heal faster. They can blow through major injuries that require multiple surgeries, and they can play so well that the need for a second surgery completely disappears! You can understand why the Yankees aren’t so concerned that they’re committed to paying A-Rod more than $25 million a year past his 41st birthday. His injuries are healing themselves, his performance isn’t suffering, and he’s clearly a different breed. The Yankees look at him and they don’t see the typical career arc, where performance declines in the late-30s and early 40s as nature runs its course. They look at A-Rod and they see shadows of the great ones, the rarest of the rare, like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, who continued to get bigger and better with age, and shook off injuries that would have sidelined much younger peers.

Wouldn’t it be great to be in their shoes for just a little while? Who among us doesn’t wish there was a SOMEthing––a cream or a pill, or maybe something injectable for those that can handle needles––that could make us a little stronger and quicker, and help us shake off injuries, so that we could know just for a while, a month or two, what it feels like to be one of these superhuman fellows like A-Rod. But you have to be an adult about it and just accept that A-Rod’s better than you. Like his doctor says: “You’re dealing with a world-class athlete who has a lot of discipline.”

Discipline can heal busted hips, people. Doctors don’t lie.

So congratulations to A-Rod, on a well-deserved year for the ages! A-Rod, old sport, you took a season that started ugly, with an embarrassing admission of past steroid use, and showed the world that you can do it WITHOUT steroids. That you can be just as fast, and strong, and dominant, and heal even more quickly with bigger injuries than you did back when you were using the stuff. Very, very impressive.

And for my money, this year A-Rod just had should put to rest the notion that steroids or HGH or any of that other stuff makes a difference. It doesn’t, folks. Let’s let our athletes be athletes and stop being so suspicious of them.

2007 NL Central Preview: The "Ifs" Hold the Key

2007-03-09T08:39:00.001-08:00

Trying to separate one team from another in this division is an agonizing task. There are big, big stars, big-time up-and-comers, and big-time glaring holes on these rosters. Look at the Cardinals, for example: They have the karma, they’re always there, we know who they have and what they’ve accomplished, and there’s no reason to argue that anyone in the Central is THAT much better than they are…but then you look at their rotation and it just seems impossible.

If anything, the NL Central is the division of “if” guys. So many teams’ fortunes hinge on players who could go either way and affect the race big-time. And by “if” guy, I mean someone for whom, for one reason or another, there’s good reason to believe an impact season is on the way, but for whom there’s also a big “if” involved. Maybe it’s a guy whose shown good potential, but not yet for a full season, like Luke Scott, Rich Hill, or Chris Duncan; or maybe he’s a big “buzz” guy who can’t be ignored but hasn’t proven himself…like Homer Bailey. Or a guy who has done big things, but now has expectations on his shoulders in a new role, like Adam Wainwright. Certainly the division is full of players for whom anything but a big, top-notch year would be a surprise: Pujols, Soriano, Ramirez, Berkman, Carlos Lee, Jason Bay, Oswalt, Carpenter, and Zambrano; then a lesser tier of good-numbers guys you figure you can bank on, like Dunn, Bill Hall, Prince Fielder, Adam LaRoche, Griffey, Derek Lee, Jim Edmonds, and Scott Rolen (the latter three a notch down mainly because of health concerns) for hitters; Capuano, Arroyo, Harang, and Jason Jennings for pitchers.

So it will be the guys from the “if” category that can jump in and decide the thing. For example, Morgan Ensberg is at a tipping point in his career, and a tip toward “established slugger” could mean big things for the Astros’ lineup; and if Luke Scott, who was dynamite down the stretch last year, finds it at the same time? Even better. If neither one does, the Astros will have a hard time overcoming offensive deficiencies, despite the fact that they have two big-time hitters in Berkman and Lee.

In the end, the final standings could very well look bunched-up and uninspiring like they did last year, when the Reds finished under .500 but just three-and-a-half games off the division lead. If any teams are to make the leap over 90 wins, it would likely be the Cubs or Milwaukee, if either one of them can have one of those years where youngsters emerge and health goes well…but that scenario involving the Cubs or Brewers? Not exactly something to bet the house on.

Let’s take a look at the teams.

Chicago Cubs (2006: Sixth place, 66-96)
I didn’t want to do this…I really didn’t. It just sort of happened. I don’t like picking a team to win the division just because they have a good lineup, but I’m doing it. I don’t like picking a team to win the division because they signed a bunch of free agents, but I’m doing it. I don’t like picking a team with Alfonso Soriano’s defense in center field, but I’m doing it.

Look, it took 83 wins for the Cardinals to take this division last year, and the top two teams probably got worse, the Reds stayed about the same, the Brewers should be better, and the Pirates are still a long ways off. Only the Cubs improved significantly. Plus, their last year was a lot worse than it should have been, so this worst-to-first rise may not be the most impressive feat of all time, but it still looks like a fair bet to happen.

I don’t expect any one of Aramis Ramirez, Derek Lee, or Alfonso Soriano to have his greatest professional season, but this clearly is the premiere offensive trio in the division. Each of these guys can hit 30 homers by accident in Wrigley Field. Michael Barrett, Mark DeRosa, and Jacques Jones form a nice second tier of good, productive hitters that should have ample opportunity to drive in runs. Matt Murton fits somewhere between those two groups; his emergence as a younger, poor man’s Johnny Damon will be a key differentiating factor for whether this team wants to squeak by, or dominate the division like it should. He’s an “if” guy. Caesar Izturis is the only non-contributor in the Cubs’ lineup, but with that other thunder, I can live with him as an exclusive provider of magician-like defense.

For any of this to be worth anything, though, Rich Hill needs to step forward and be a legitimate second starter behind Carlos Zambrano. Hill was very good down the stretch last year, with double-digit strikeout games in three of his last five starts. Zambrano should be as good and as insane as ever while pitching for a long-term deal, and Ted Lilly will benefit from the move to the NL even though he’s not ideally suited for Wrigley Field. The Cubs’ real Achilles heel comes in the latter half of that rotation, where Jason Marquis was just an indefensible signing after posting a 6.02 ERA last season and Wade Miller and Mark Prior will hope to put together 30 starts between them without having a grand piano fall on either of their heads. Prior, of course, has the potential to be a big swing factor too, but that seems pointless to even talk about. Count on hearing about it plenty if he makes it through mid-May in good shape, though. In the bullpen, Scott Eyre and Bob Howry lend good stability in front of a shaky Ryan Dempster, but if things go south with the rotation, it’s not a group that will be able to hold the fort very long.

It will still take one of Lou Piniella’s better managerial jobs to get this team back to the postseason, but a refreshed Lou can do it. I don’t love the rotation, but it’s good enough up top to ride the coattails of the division’s best lineup, and there’s good defense on the left side of the field that can cover some mistakes. I’ll hold my breath and predict that, yes, there will be baseball at Wrigley this fall.

Milwaukee (2006: Fourth place, 75-87)
A recent MLB.com article chronicled the work Doug Melvin has done in “re-building the Brewers.” Re-building? Really? What are they trying to “re” capture, their 1982 championship form or their Juan Nieves-led 13-0 start in 1987? Okay…it’s not nice to pile on the Brewers, especially when there’s actually a little something to be excited about here for the first time in…well, we covered that.

Prince Fielder and Bill Hall, the poor man’s Alfonso Soriano, will anchor a lineup that features a decent mix of speed, power, youth and experience but is probably one big bat away from the upper echelon. Rickie Weeks and JJ Hardy are young but talented up the middle, and if they mature heading into each of their third seasons, the Brewers are going places. But assuming they don’t, there still could be a little something to be desired. Kevin Mench, Geoff Jenkins, and Corey Hart will handle the corner outfield spots where a Carlos Lee or a Magglio Ordonez or Gary Sheffield would have fit so perfectly and had me jumping all over the Brewers’ playoff train.

The Milwaukee rotation has a nice, stable base in Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, and Chris Capuano, all poised to hold the line and allow Ben Sheets to stay healthy, be the ace, and pitch them into contention. Sheets is probably the biggest “if” guy in the division because of how much his team is counting on him and how good they can be if he comes through. Another injury-plagued year, though, and Sheets starts to invoke the Mark Prior comparisons, which is not a place that any pitcher wants to be. The bet here is that he comes through and the Brewers are one of league’s emerging storylines all year long. And their pitching CAN be good enough to outlast the Cubs, there’s no question about it.

If Sheets does emerge this year, Doug Melvin becomes the key the Brewers’ fortunes. He’ll need to grab that extra corner outfield bat before July 31 and get this team to the postseason for the first time since 1982.

St. Louis (2006: First Place, 83-78)
I want to pick them to win the division because of their stability and because they have the best hitter and arguably the best pitcher and manager in the league and they’re a good team to pick in the midst of great uncertainty. I do. But “Braden Looper, fifth starter” sounds like something you should only hear associated with a team like the 2006 Red Sox, who had every physical and mental injury other than Delerium Tremens affect them (Ramirez: 30-Day DL; Sprained Imagination). Looper, who despite making himself into a solid reliever, has NEVER started in the majors, but is part of the Cardinals’ rotation heading into Spring Training. You have to go back three years to find the last time Kip Wells pitched consistently well, and I’m not real sure about the way this Anthony Reyes wears his hat brim, or his Kip Wells-like 5.08 ERA. So far in this paragraph, I’ve discussed three-fifths of the Cardinals’ projected starting rotation according to MLB.com. Now it’s clear why Adam Wainwright is such a big “if” guy. Like Jonathan Papelbon, he’s in an uncommon position for a young pitcher: We don’t know much about him as a starter, but his team is depending on him for 15 wins.

I don’t know why Scott Rolen can’t seem to get along with anybody anymore. I lived in Philadelphia when he played there, and he seemed to have a really good relationship with his dog. The papers were always writing about it. Regardless of his feuds, the fortunes of the Cards’ lineup depend on which side of the 27 homer-92 RBI line Rolen and Jim Edmonds are on. If they’re both healthy and consistent, they’re likely above it, and that gives Chris Duncan a chance to settle in and rake the way he did last year. If health problems persist, Duncan probably has a little too much pressure on him and that puts a lot of run-producing attention on Juan Encarnacion, Yadier Molina, and DavidEcksteinAdamKennedy (together, they form one full-size man who will play middle infield for the Cardinals…that man, of course, will feature two massive hearts). Who’s excited about that? Not me.

The real worry for the Cardinals, though, is the latter half of that rotation and the health of Jason Insringhausen; if they feel pressure to go back to Wainwright as closer, the rotation just can’t possibly survive. Jeff Suppan may not have been worth $48 million, but the Cardinals will miss him dearly. Unless Wainwright wins 15 and Dave Duncan works magic with Looper (which is possible), I think there’s a long summer ahead in St. Louis.

Houston (2006: Second place, 82-80)
I loved the Astros picking up Jason Jennings; the fact that he threw up a 3.56 ERA in 15 starts at Coors Field last year says he’s tough, resourceful, and must be dying to get started with a full-time career at sea level, even a waffle-ball field like Houston. He and Roy Oswalt may well be the best 1-2 starting pitching tandem in the league when all is said and done. But Houston is a top-heavy team, both in its rotation and its lineup, and will need big things from its big guns to get back to the playoffs. Woody Williams is the swing factor in this rotation, and I’m skeptical that he can match last year’s excellent line (12-5, 3.65 in 25 starts) while moving from massive San Diego to Houston’s bandbox. Williams needs to be consistent, because Wandy Rodriguez and Mike Albers in the fourth and fifth spots are young, highly unproven commodities which, if they struggle, will do nothing but feed the Clemens monster in Houston.

Like its rotation, Houston’s lineup is top-heavy with the lethal two-man combination of Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee likely good for 250 RBI between them. At the other end of the spectrum, Adam Everett (.290 OBP) and Brad Ausmus (.306 OBP) have considerable defensive virtues but will render the bottom third of Houston’s lineup the weakest in the league; toss Craig Biggio (.306 OBP) into that mix and assume barely average numbers from center fielder Chris Burke and you can start to understand why Luke Scott and Morgan Ensberg are such important bats for the Astros. Ensberg is the guy they really have to be counting on this season, because as good as Scott was last year, he only did it for 65 games, so there’s only so much you can realistically expect. Ensberg is the guy who has had some big years and needs to lock in, produce, and let the league know what he’s made of. If he can’t do that, there’s just too much pressure on too few guys for this team to succeed. If Biggio continues to struggle like he did last year, Mark Loretta is available at second base, but he isn’t terribly far behind Biggio on the fast track to retirement.

As good as the Astros’ stars are, it will probably take Clemens and another bat to get them to October. That’s a shaky proposition for a team with a history of slow starts, but they’ve certainly done it before. On the other hand, if the team starts really slow and any key performers go down and Clemens bolts to the Northeast, look for Phil Garner’s head on the chopping block, because there’s not a lot of margin for error here.

Cincinnati (2006: Third place, 80-82)
Despite playing in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the majors, Reds GM Wayne Krivsky has made his focus clear since taking over the Reds last season: He’s traded for Bronson Arroyo and signed him to an extension through 2011, signed Aaron Harang to a four-year extension, traded two impact bats (Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns) for three bullpen arms, and now has signed Alex Gonzalez to a two-year deal to play shortstop, most certainly a gift to his pitchers and not his lineup. Harang and Arroyo are very good, but it’s hard to see either one of them exceeding last year’s totals. And on the downside, Arroyo probably pitched above his head last year, and at 270 pounds, Harang’s health can’t be taken for granted. With Kyle Lohse, Eric Milton, and Elizardo Ramirez probably rounding out the rotation, Krivsky has not exactly re-made the 1990s Atlanta Braves yet.

Cincy fans are chomping at the bit for the arrival of 21-year-old phenom Homer Bailey, generally regarded as the first- or second-best pitching prospect in the game today. While a mid-summer arrival for Bailey seems likely, I’m no proponent of expecting a 21-year-old to save your season. We’d never expect it from a 21-year-old hitter, so why from such a young pitcher? It’s too much to ask, and this team isn’t nearly good enough for him to make that much of a difference anyway. Just take a look at the offense.

Rich Aurilia (Rich Aurilia?) was a godsend (godsend?) in 2006, batting .300 with 23 homers and 70 RBI in 122 games. He’s gone to San Francisco, and his bat essentially is replaced by Alex Gonzalez, who, aside from a streak here and there, is a really, really, really shitty offensive player. True, there’s nobody on the planet who plays shortstop on his level, but he had a .299 on-base percentage last year and was 8-for-58 with runners in scoring position and two outs. Brandon Phillips at second base is not really a ton better, with his .325 OBP, but does bring a bit of pop and, at age 25, could potentially step forward. Young Edwin Encarnacion at third base is really the big hope for the infield at this point, with the potential to be a 20-25 homer, .375-OBP third baseman. Scott Hatteberg at first base and David Ross behind the plate are average bats…nothing more, nothing less.

We know what to expect from the outfield: Adam Dunn will mash and get on base with true authority when he’s not striking out. Griffey will produce well when he’s not suffering a horrible injury, and Ryan Freel will play as hard as anyone until he runs into a wall and ends up on the DL with Griffey. So you’ll get production, but you’ll have to come up with some replacement players too, and on the days when Griffey and Freel are out, that’s when we’ll start to see how badly the rest of this lineup sucks.

So when you add it all up, unless Dunn puts it all together at the same time Encarnacion and Phillips take big steps forward and Griffey and Freel are able to stay healthy for 150 games, it’s hard to see how the Reds are going to put any distance between themselves and .500. Sorry, Reds fans, but Homer Bailey’s not gonna do….

Pittsburgh (2006: Sixth place, 67-95)
Let’s start with the lineup: There are four projected starters (Chris Duffy, Jose Castillo, Jack Wilson, and Ronny Paulino) that slugged under .400 last year; the league average was .427. Factor in the pitcher’s spot and that’s a lot of slack for Jason Bay, Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, and Xavier Nady to pick up. Bay is as good as they come in left field, and it would be a shame for him to spend the rest of his prime in a Triple-A caliber lineup. Although it always hurts to give up a Mike Gonzalez-type arm (2.37 career-ERA), putting run producers in place at the corner positions is a top priority for a floundering franchise, so grabbing Adam LaRoche to play first was a prudent move. Sanchez, Bay, and LaRoche will form a 2-3-4 combination that any team could win with…in a three-on-three wiffle ball game. Unfortunately this is nine-on-nine, and the only other possible bright spot I can see is Xavier Nady, who will get his first chance to play every day as the Bucs’ right fielder. Nady hits the ball hard but could use more discipline after walking just 40 times 512 plate appearances last season.

If the Pirates are going to rise from the rubble anytime soon, they’ll be counting on a quartet of young, cheap home-grown starters to lift them up. Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, and Ian Snell are all locks for the 2007 rotation and Tom Gorzellany looks like a good bet to be in the fifth spot, behind Shawn Chacon or Tony Armas (yeesh). Duke had major buzz going after a terrific 2005 rookie year (8-2, 1.81 in 14 starts) but hit a bit of a sophomore wall last season. Snell struck out 169 in 32 starts in 2006 after entering the season with just five major league starts to his name. Those two are definitely something for Pirate fans to be excited about, but for them to reach their full potential, the defense behind them simply HAS to improve.

Here’s one way to look at it: A statistic developed by Baseball Prospectus called BABIP measures Batting Average on Balls In Play. It is a pitchers’ batting-average-against on balls put into play, excluding home runs. It gives an indication of how much good/bad defense and good/bad luck a pitcher is getting behind him and can sometimes help explain why a pitcher experiences a random fluctuation in performance even though it doesn’t seem like he’s throwing much differently. A typical BABIP for a pitcher is about .290. For the Pirates three main youngsters last year, the BABIPs were: Duke, .336; Snell, .327; Maholm, .334. When one guy is so far above the league average, it could be luck. When it’s three-fifths of your starting five, I’d start to look at upgrading the defense, because it may just be that they’re not getting to enough balls out there.

The good news is that the Pirates have half a good lineup and a rotation with potential. The bad news is that, on paper, they’re still quite a bit worse than every other team in the division heading into the season, and it’s hard to figure that reality will be much different unless Snell and Duke really blossom and push the Bucs into the middle of the pack.

2007 MLB Season Preview Series: NL West

2007-02-26T20:21:00.000-08:00

Even though the Barry Bonds sideshow has continued to dominate headlines, this really has been the least-compelling division in baseball for quite some time now. It's been since 2003 that a legitimate contender came out of the National League West—and even that team, the 101-win Giants, bit it in the division series against the Marlins. NL West clubs are 2-12 in the playoffs since 2004, and the San Diego Padres have taken the division crown each of the past two seasons despite failing to crack 90 wins either time. It’s competitive as hell out there for sure, but more as a result of parity than excellence. From the blissful ignorance of late winter, it's hard to think any of these teams is ready for a real breakthrough season and playoff rampage; on the other hand, surprise playoff runs from previously lackluster franchises are all the rage in Major League Baseball these days, so we must be vigilant.

Truthfully, it’s been a while since an NL West team even started a season with legitimately high hopes; each franchise has had its unique flaws. Colorado has had to resort to dampening balls in a humidor before games to try and make the sport played in Denver more closely resemble baseball. San Francisco, desperate to stay competitive every season to keep its self-financed ballpark filled, has been dragged down by age, fielding some of the oldest everyday lineups in league history the past two seasons. Arizona has recognized the need to re-load after a meteoric rise to the 2001 World Title and then the long, gradual erosion of the core of veterans that brought them that crown. The Padres have been a model of consistency and stability over the past decade, overachieving nicely but always lacking the talent to really scare anyone in the postseason. The Dodgers have fought through organizational turmoil (managerial, front office, and ownership changes) to stay competitive but tantalizingly out-of-balance, prone to offensive droughts and debilitating injuries.

2007 will be another year of strong starting pitching throughout most of the NL West (save, of course, for Colorado), and the emergence some of young, unproven bats looks to be the x-factor that will nudge one team into the 88- to 92-win zone and take the crown. The conservative money here is on Dodger Blue, where young bats, power arms, and an active G.M. should give Los Angeles the resources to sneak into the Fall Tournament.

Here’s a team-by-team look:

Los Angeles Dogders (2006: 88-74, second place)
Those who watch and cover the Dodgers seemed to bid a hearty good riddance to J.D. Drew, but the team did very little to replace his .393 OBP and 100 RBI, failing in efforts to land Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee. In order to win the West, the Dodgers will need big steps forward from some combination of Andre Ethier, Wilson Betemit, James Loney, and Russell Martin as well as health and solid run-producing from Nomar Garciaparra and Jeff Kent. On the bright side, those possibilities, while not sure things, are at least possible (as opposed to the Padres hoping for runs to fall out of the sky or the Giants hoping the fountain of youth springs out of McCovey Cove.) In addition, G.M. Ned Colletti has shown the ability to wheel and deal with the best of them in mid-season (he picked up Greg Maddux, Julio Lugo, and Betemit last year) and has the resources to do it again, so expect the Dodgers to be active in the market for another bat come July, if not sooner.

With three power arms at the front of the rotation (Derek Lowe, Jason Schmidt, and Brad Penny) and an emerging nuclear arm at the back (Jonathan Broxton), the Los Angeles staff can be special, although consistency tends to be an issue with Lowe and Penny.

Juan Pierre, believe it or not, is a downgrade in centerfield from Kenny Lofton; it’s about a 30-point drop in on-base percentage in the leadoff hole, which is tough news for an iffy lineup. But of all the teams in the division, the Dodgers are in the best position for their unknowns to emerge, their pitching to live up to its considerable potential, and to get the help they need down the road. Just how big they come up in any of these three categories will determine whether the Blue Crew can be the first NL West team to take a playoff series since 2002.

San Diego (2006: 88-74, first place by virtue of winning season series vs. L.A.)
The two-time defending division champs added Greg Maddux to a good pitching staff in pitcher-friendly Petco Field. But the losses of Mike Piazza, Dave Roberts, and perhaps most significantly, manager Bruce Bochy, could well be enough to loosen the Pads’ tenuous hold on the division crown. That’s not to say Roberts and Piazza were world-beaters last year, but they were two of the team’s top five offensive performers, and this is a team that is STARVED for runs. They could ill afford to go backwards in that department, but it appears that they did. While it’s hard to quantify a manager’s effect on a team, the Padres regularly overachieved during Bochy’s tenure and have had a reputation for great consistency; new manager Bud Black will have a big job trying to replicate that and to find a lineup that can keep this team in contention.

In defense of San Diego GM Kevin Towers, building around pitching is probably the only way to go at Petco. The Padres will likely have real trouble signing hitters until they decide to reconfigure that cavernous monstrosity. Until then, star-in-the-making first baseman Adrian Gonzalez will try to continue his maturation process amid lineup help such as Mike Cameron, Khalil Greene, Termell Sledge, the young-but-heralded Kevin Kouzmanoff, and the Giambi Giles brothers (Marcus and Brian, to whom the post-Victor Conte era has NOT been kind). On the upside, catcher Josh Bard was a major bright spot last year, coming over from the Red Sox for Doug Mirabelli to throw up a nasty .943 OPS in 231 at-bats. Keeping it at that level for a 550 at-bats would be a real statement, but San Diego fans will take any ray of offensive light they can get.

While park size has been a factor in the Padres’ apparent pitching stability the past few seasons, they still will compete on the strength of their rotation and bullpen. Winning the division despite a sub-par year from Jake Peavy was no small feat, and I’m a big believer in the effect that Greg Maddux can have on the young ace this year. In the bullpen, Cla Meredith (also stolen from the Red Sox…TUMS please) was even more of a bright spot than Josh Bard was on offense, basically destroying everyone he faced with little mercy, to the tune of a 1.07 ERA over 50.1 relief innings. If he can avoid the yearly fluctuations that big-league relievers seem prone to, he’ll team with Trevor Hoffman and Scot Linebrink to form a triumvirate of relief that ranks among baseball’s best back-ends.

Clearly, San Diego playing to its home-field advantage in building around pitching, but unless Kevin Kouzmanoff blossoms quickly, the Giles brothers rediscover the tonic of life, or Kevin Towers can add one or two good gap hitters during the year without blowing up his staff, the offensive problems just seem way too glaring. Second place seems reasonable, but the playoffs do not.

San Francisco (2006: 76-85, third place)
Although GM Brian Sabean is slightly hamstrung by a hands-on owner who needs to keep his ballpark full to continue making mortgage payments on the exquisite AT&T Park, it still is mind-boggling to me that he hasn’t found a way to get any younger on offense in three years. The Giants’ projected lineup averages 36 years old this season, and while Dave Roberts represents a reasonable upgrade in center field, even a best-case scenario performance by everyone in the Giants’ lineup would likely not add up to 90 wins.

First off, Omar Vizquel, Rich Aurilia, and Ray Durham (SS, 1B, and 2B, respectively) all had best-case scenario seasons LAST year, and all are a year older. If you expect them all to repeat those performances and for third baseman Pedro Feliz to build on his .281 OBP, then I guess the Giants could have a decent shot at improving. Provided, of course, that Barry Bonds plays 140 games and Randy Winn returns to the form that made him good enough to be traded for Lou Pinella in 2002. (I’m not sure how good that is, but it better be a lot better than he was last year.) Yeah…not a lot for Mad Dog Russo to be excited about this year.

That said, I don’t put it past Barry Bonds to take enough as-yet-unheard-of horse drugs to hit 50 homers and walk 300 times this year. I really don’t. At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if he found some way to break Rickey Henderson’s single-season stolen-base record by the All Star break by having Barbaro’s three good legs grafted onto his body. As much as it pains me to say it, he’s still an X-factor, because he’s probably crazy enough to find a way to be one. (But I still despise when writers and broadcasters say “When he’s healthy, he’s still the best hitter in the game,” as if the 40-50 games he misses have no ill effect on his team.)

Though he’s probably a better long-term option, Barry Zito isn’t much of an upgrade at all over what the Giants lost in Jason Schmidt (213 IP, 3.59 ERA, 180 Ks last year). The big potential for the pitching is the possibility of a breakout year for Matt Cain, a big young power pitcher who holds the key to the organization’s future. With Cain and Zito in place for at least the next five years, San Francisco should at least start every season set at the top of the rotation; getting the rest of the field figured out is going to be a long, long story though. (Too bad they traded Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan, and Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski a few years back. Woops.) Provided Sabean doesn’t make something that’s the exact opposite of that deal, third place is probably the ceiling for this traveling convalescent home.

Arizona (2006: 76-86, T-Fourth Place)
Under the guidance of former Red Sox Assistant GM Josh Byrnes, the Diamondbacks are doing most of the right things in rebuilding their organization for long-term success after many years of mortgaging the future to pay for the present. And while there’s a lot in the pipeline, it's hard to think the D-Backs will have enough pitching or hitting this time around to survive the six-month grind and contend.

Chad Tracy (.281, 20 HR, 80 RBI last season) and Conor Jackson (.291, 15, 79) are the centerpieces of a very young lineup; not exactly a cause for NL pitchers to shake in their boots. Still, the future is bright, as Jackson, shortstop Stephen Drew, and centerfielder Chris Young are all seen as big-time future prospects that will have a chance to mature this season.

There are a lot of rosy projections flying around about how good Arizona's rotation, starting with the outstanding Brandon Webb, can be this year with the return of Randy Johnson to some sort of mythical "comfort zone" that apparently only exists "closer to his Arizona home." Listen, I'm not saying his ERA won't improve with a move to the NL West; it certainly should. But he's 45, coming off back surgery and a 5.00 ERA, and has apparently required injections of synthetic lubricant into his knee before every start for three seasons now. I’m not sure we’ve ever seen a guy PLAY baseball under those circumstances, let alone have a great bounce-back year. How is it possible for so many people to overlook the fact that he's REALLY old and has a ton of mileage on him and probably is done as an elite pitcher? I don't begrudge him the opportunity to pitch and make more millions; he's still serviceable and if a team is willing to pay him as a top-tier pitcher, then good for him. But to think Randy Johnson is going to have a major impact on the NL West really ignores a lot of obvious, time-tested factors that are at play here.

Veteran donut-eater innings-eater Livan Hernandez brought his downward-arcing career to hitter-friendly BankOne Ballpark last year and pitched reasonably well. Expect an ERA approaching 5.00 this year though, as his total performance the last three seasons would indicate. Still, as long as he eats more innings than donuts, Livan should combine with newly-acquired Doug Davis (another 200-inning lock) to be a decent 3-4 combination. And although Johnson, Davis, and Hernandez are all mediocre, the D-backs could well have four 200-inning starters, which is valuable in today’s game, particularly with an unsettled bullpen situation.

Byrnes’ strategy to build a stable rotation with good defense behind it in order to allow a young lineup to develop and a bullpen to take shape is a good one, particularly for a team with some financial issues right now. I still say the Johnson acquisition was dubious at best, particularly given his salary, but this team has a chance to finish above .500 this year and give itself a nice foundation for the future. Contending for the playoffs deep into the summer, though, is likely too much to ask.

Colorado (2006: 76-86, T-Fourth Place)
Heading into their fifteenth season, the Colorado Rockies’ value to Major League Baseball appears to be as a transit point for hitters to inflate their numbers to egregiously high levels and parlay that faux-success into good contracts elsewhere (see Vinny Castilla, Preston Wilson, or Jeromy Burnitz for proof). This is a franchise that has won eighty games only three times and hasn’t finished higher than fourth place in almost a decade. It’s clear they have no chance to attract marquee free-agent pitchers anymore and that any decent pitchers that come up through the system won’t stick around long (Jason Jennings finally managed to put up a sub-4.00 ERA in Coors Field last season, only to be traded because the team knew he’d bolt in free agency after this year.) Last year, the team resorted to putting baseballs in humidors before games to make them heavier and keep scoring down. Whether or not it worked is irrelevant; the point is that when a team has to resort to doctoring the equipment to make baseball playable at its home park, it’s a sign that baseball shouldn’t be played there. It’s a shame because Denver is a good baseball town and Coors Field a gorgeous park, but the game there is a sideshow and no organization can compete without pitching.

Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins will at least make the Rockies fun to watch this year with their continued fireworks at the plate. If Todd Helton bounces back and has a strong spring, he’ll likely be dealt to a contender, possibly the Red Sox, which I believe would be a real mistake on the part of the acquiring team. Several years of declining power numbers are a bad sign anywhere; declining power numbers in Coors Field combined with the worst existing contract in baseball should scare EVERYONE away.

On the bright side, Byun-Hyung Kim could be in their rotation again, which is nice.

Finishing above fifth place would be a big achievement for Colorado.

Thoughts for the Day: DirecTV and the Return of the OTHER Billy Bean

2007-02-12T12:41:00.000-08:00

For as much of a public-relations flogging as Major League Baseball has taken over its rumored decision to offer the Extra Innings Package exclusively through DirecTV this season, you have to give Bud Selig and his staff a certain perverse credit: they’re STILL finding a way to make it worse. I guess it's just what they do well.

The league hasn’t officially acknowledged anything about the deal yet; no denial of the rumor, no confirmation of the deal, not even a “no comment at this time.” Still, journalists around the country, including Richard Sandomir of the New York Times, who originally broke the story, continue to report that it’s a done deal just waiting for some dotted I’s and crossed T’s. Columnists have protested, fans nationwide have expressed outrage, and Senator John Kerry has even called for government action. Meanwhile, in absolute classic Selig Administration style, Major League Baseball has said nothing. Just like with the steroid issue, they pretend there’s no elephant in the room while the public throws its collective hands up in disgust.

The effect: We’re six weeks from the start of the season, and nobody knows yet whether they’ll have to get DirecTV if they want to get the Extra Innings package. We THINK we’ll have to, but we don’t know for sure, because MLB won’t say anything about it. And the thing is, the story has to be true, because if it wasn’t, MLB would be scrambling to the nearest microphones, cameras, and keyboards to ensure fans that, not to worry, the package will be available through all traditional outlets this season and you should hurry up and subscribe because Steve Trachsel is still unsigned and could still probably get a $75-million deal if we fans could shell out a few more bucks (or something like that).

On MLB.com, the official Web site of Major League Baseball, a search for the Extra Innings package returns one hit that indicates that the package is still available to all subscribers of both satellite and digital cable (screen shot here). This appears, however, to be old information that was never deleted from the site’s index; when you click on “More information”, the link simply bumps you back to the MLB.com home page instead of actually offering more information. Major League Baseball at its user-friendly best: Delete all info indicating that you’re screwing your most loyal, hard-core fan base, but forget to delete it all.

One would think that if MLB was committed to its decision to abandon cable subscribers and go exclusively to DirecTV, it would at least want to offer fans enough time to plan a switch before the start of the season. One might even think that a truly business-savvy organization might organize a Public Relations campaign around the switch, offering messaging and incentives that at least attempt to paint the move in a positive light and convince fans to switch to DirecTV. But instead, they say nothing as the clock ticks to six weeks until opening day and fans like me wonder whether or not they need to switch.

Of course, the possibility exists that MLB negotiated the deal with DirecTV to the point of near completion and now, upon hearing the public backlash, is trying wriggle free of it while DirecTV stands its legal ground and refuses to yield. We’ve seen this sort of idiocy before from Selig and Friends, most notably when they contracted with Sony Pictures to print Spiderman promotional logos on the bases at Major League games during the 2002 season, only to renege on the deal upon realizing that fans found it to be a cheesy, ham-handed money grab. That single incident is more than enough evidence to remind us that Bud Selig’s ability to be out-of-touch with his own audience knows no bounds.

Another possibility is that Baseball wants to de-emphasize television and steer users to the World Wide Web for the Extra Innings Package. (This column argues persuasively that this mess is tied to a larger effort eventually offer public stock in MLB Interactive). It does seem rather plausible that some slick dot-com marketing whiz from MLB Interactive made a nice case to the MLB stiffs as to why fans would be better off subscribing to games over the Web instead of on television anyway, and Bud bought it hook, line, and sinker because, truth be told, he doesn’t use a computer and really doesn’t even watch too many baseball games in the first place. At this point, Selig seems so oblivious to so many things that I think Barry Bonds could walk into his Manhattan office on a Monday morning, take a massive, parasitic, growth-hormone-ridden shit all over the floor, pick up a handful and whip it at the window, cackle ravenously, and walk out, and Selig would work right through it and not acknowledge the smell or mess until the cleaning crew arrived on Friday afternoon.

Vile images aside, as this situation continues to fester, the ill-fated Spiderman deal doesn’t just offer a previous example of Selig’s time-honored penchant for inviting public criticism; it’s also an example of his willingness to relent when he realizes he’s made the wrong decision. Let's hope that wasn't just a one-time occurrence. There’s still time to get this right. But for God's sake at least acknowledge that it's an issue for a lot of good baseball fans across the country and tell us what to expect.

***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** *****

I mean, seriously…is there any chance that Oakland A’s GM Billy Beane DIDN’T yell “Jesus effing Christ, not again!” and gun a cup of coffee at the wall when he saw this? I wonder if anyone has ever approached him with a copy of "Moneyball" in one hand and a copy of "Going the Other Way: Lessons From a Life in and out of Major League Baseball" in another, seeking the Bean(e) stamp of approval on the two most important texts to the modern gay baseball stat junkie.

The New York Post's Jay Greenberg this weekend declared Bobby Abreu the most overrated pro athlete in the New York market, trotting out the ridiculous, Philadelphia-made criticism that Abreu is afraid to run into the outfield wall as the reason to believe he's not as good a player as his statistics indicate. "Rotisserie numbers are helped by his sharp eye at the plate, almost as keen as his eye for the right-field wall. Stays clear of it while wearing a glove. Doesn't clear it often enough with his bat," wrote Greenberg. It was an abruptly curious and unprovoked end to Abreu's grace period in New York, which for most of last season seemed like a honeymoon. One could argue that Abreu may not exactly be worth $16-plus million a year, or perhaps even argue that he's a bit overrated as a right fielder. But does his willingness to run into the wall really overshadow 10 out of11 years of .400-plus On-Base Percentage and four straight seasons of 100-plus RBIs? Those numbers would somehow be more valid if he threw himself into the front row a couple of times a month? If your financial advisor brought thirty percent annual returns on your money, would you criticize him for not doing it aggressively enough? And what metric is used to measure "willingness to run into the right field wall," anway? Is it the same stat that's used to measure the size of David Eckstein's heart and the absence of J.D. Drew's passion?

Three head-scratchers from Nick Cafardo’s 2007 National League Preview in this past Sunday’s Boston Globe: In assessing the Atlanta Braves' '07 outlook, after the obligatory “these guys just know how to win” filler, Cafardo says, “All eyes will be on Scott Thorman, replacing Adam LaRoche at first base”; in St. Louis, Cafardo feels that “All eyes will be on Adam Kennedy’s return to second base”; and in Cincinnati, the prediction is that “All eyes will be on righty Gary Majewski, who had a sore arm when he was acquired from Washington last season.” It’s bad enough to fall in love with this “All eyes will be on…” nonsense; but there may not be three players in the entire Major Leagues to whom LESS attention will be paid this season than Scott Thorman, Adam Kennedy, and Gary Majewski. If all eyes are really going to be on them this year, I’ll be ordering the WNBA Season Pass, thanks, because it’s not shaping up to be a terribly interesting year. Cafardo is normally a reliable baseball writer in a bland, “at-least-he’s-not-Jayson-Stark” kind of way, but this work does NOT represent the long legacy of superior Globe baseball coverage very well.

Thoughts for the Day, January 31, 2007

2007-01-31T07:35:00.000-08:00

This is a good idea. A really good idea. And please…they’re called baristas.

If you needed any MORE evidence that amateur wrestling is the grossest sport on earth—I mean, if you weren’t convinced by the kid in South Dakota that’s charged with 21 counts of rape for repeatedly sticking his fingers up kids’ asses through their unitards during practice—then here it is. The state of Minnesota has suspended high school wrestling after a widespread herpes outbreak among participants. If I ever have a son and he wants to be a high school wrestler, I’m just going to send him up to Harlem with money for coke and a hooker so I don’t have to worry so much about his safety. Just the word unitard alone is fucking gross.

Dick Jerardi of the Philadelphia Daily News yesterday lamented the loss of Barbaro, or, as Jerardi calls him, “The People’s Horse.” (And he’s right. The working class could never relate to War Emblem or Fusaichi Pegasus or even Secretariat, with their fancy non-broken legs and total inability to fight for their lives with the courage of a thousand Mongol Warriors and the heart of a trillion Jon Cusack movies). Sam Donellon, a columnist for that very same Philadelphia Daily News, brewed up a tear-jerking insta-Pulitzer column entitled “Barbaro’s Story was Our Story,” rife with soul-searching nuggets that would have even Siddhartha himself re-thinking his commitment to the sound of the sacred river. To wit: “This animal, so majestic in its prehistoric elegance, so fleet and fragile in its construction, died while entertaining us. Sure it could have occurred in a field somewhere with no eyes upon it, but it didn't. It occurred with the world's eyes upon it, replayed countless times in countless places.” I submit that these two columns alone saved at least a dozen lives in offering the despondent among some ray of hope, however small, that there is life after Barbaro, and that the lessons The People’s Horse taught us can live on in word and deed, and in the hearts of us all. How could two such masterpieces come from the VERY SAME NEWSPAPER? Well…just remember, this paper is located in Philadelphia, a city that, just three years ago, was locked in a legitimate, city-wide debate over whether a Smarty Jones Triple Crown would constitute an official end to the city’s sports title drought (now 23 years and counting). They love their horses, especially when they either win the first two legs of the Triple Crown or happen to come to nearby hospitals with broken legs and then die.

--End cynicism--

Unless your team is in it or there’s a particularly compelling matchup, Super Bowl week is generally, for my money, the worst week of the year in sports media, particularly radio. It’s hell for the sports fan who craves substance over fluff, full of the same repetitive analysis we've heard a thousand times, but from a thousand times more people than we get it from in a normal NFL week. However, former University of Miami, Dallas Cowboys, and Miami Dolphins coach Jimmy Johnson had an appearance on Mike and the Mad Dog yesterday (Jan. 30) was absolutely none of the above. Very solid football talk from a really entertaining guy, full of the kind of candid information that is hard to come by on cookie-cutter format sports shows. And if I had to guess, I’d say Jimmy had exactly the right number of cocktails before going on the air to make this appearance truly interesting without saying anything harmful or embarrassing. Jimmy is one of those guys you truly despise if he’s leading a team you don’t like, but if you can step back for a second and enjoy him, he’s really one of the great, entertaining figures in the last three decades of American sports.

And like I said...Super Bowl week blows, really. Would you really want to be dealing with THIS right now?.

Thoughts for the Day, January 29, 2007

2007-01-29T19:27:00.000-08:00

Is it possible Tom Brady lost the AFC Championship game on purpose just to see what Gisele might do to cheer him up after a loss?

As if he needed another annoying trait, Mike Lupica is now giving updates in his Sunday column “Shooting from the Lip” on how totally into 24 he is. It’s usually something razor-sharp, too, like “Unless it’s a matter of national security, don’t call me during 24 tonight.” Why is everything he does just so damn cool?

There’s a rising tide of speculation indicating that Todd Helton could soon be wearing a Red Sox uniform. On the upside, Helton is a lock for a .400 on-base percentage every year, meaning the Sox would have five hitters in their everyday lineup (Helton, Ortiz, Ramirez, Drew, and Youkilis) easily capable of topping that magic mark in 2007. In comparison, the 2003 Red Sox, which scored 961 runs had only one player with a .400 OBP, and 1927 Yankees, which scored 975 runs, had four players over .400 (and six players above .380). Acquiring Helton would also likely move Kevin Youkilis to the lower half of the Sox’ lineup and make it even more of a grind for pitchers to get through without astronomical pitch counts.

On the downside, Helton’s contract has been described by anonymous baseball executives as baseball’s worst, primarily because it is a heavily backloaded deal that will pay him nearly $20 million a year when he’s 39 years old; bad news considering he’s already worth nowhere near that number. Even though the Rockies will likely pay as much as half of the money owed to Helton for the remainder of the deal (presuming it gets done), the Red Sox would still be signing up for five more years of a player whose production---even his OBP---has dropped at an alarming rate the past two seasons. Sounds an awful lot like the sort of move that turned the Yankees into a slogging, star-heavy organization that is only now beginning to right its ship and get the sort of youthful makeover it has needed for four or five years.

The guess here is that Helton, to Red Sox brass. represents insurance against more Manny Madness during Spring Training. Manny reportedly pledged at the end of last season not to report to camp this year if he wasn’t traded during the off-season. Obviously, he wasn’t dealt, and all reports indicate that Red Sox management is essentially holding its breath hoping he’s forgotten his threat and will show up and hit this year.

That’s a shaky proposition, especially given that Manny’s nonsense finally, at the end last year, had a major impact on the Sox’ on-field fortunes when he ducked most of the season’s final six weeks. Why should we think anything will be different to start 2007? Red Sox management certainly isn’t stupid enough not to realize that, and shouldn’t put itself in a position to be submarined by Manny this year. As presently constituted, a Manny holdout (or something similar) would be a blow that every other hitter in the lineup would feel; Helton wouldn’t offset it, but would be about as good an insurance policy as is currently available.

Of Game Management, Trent Dilfer, and Conference Titles: A Treatise

2007-01-19T07:07:00.000-08:00

Before we get into the conference title games, I think I’ve figured something out…stay with me, here. You’ll be a much smarter NFL fan after this. If a quarterback is over 30 years old, plays a shitty game, and his team wins, he MANAGED THE GAME well. Remember how well Brad Johnson was managing games for Minnesota early in the season? The guy was like a fucking human spreadsheet under center. He communicated with his employees, made all members of the group feel valued, built team unity with such activities as paintball and whitewater rafting, and consistently recognized the contributions of key individuals. Remember the great game manager Trent Dilfer, pictured above with Michael T. Mouse? He actually played his college ball at the Wharton School of Business, learning to manage games so brilliantly that he once won a Super Bowl simply by keeping a calculator in his pads while on the field to do on-the-fly risk assessment. And it’s certainly no wonder that Chicago Bears fans have repeatedly called for Brian Griese to take over the starting position this season. The man is quite simply the Tony LaRussa of Quarterbacks, and if you think any of what he would hypothetically bring to the Bears is tangible, then think again, because it isn’t. He’d bring invisible qualities that would make you completely forget that he absolutely sucks.

There’s some game-managing going on in these 2006 NFL playoffs (playoffs?!?!?!) , too. According to ESPN’s Len Pasquarelli, who I’m pretty sure enjoys a nice kielbasa sandwich a couple of times a day, Peyton Manning “managed the game well” last Saturday in Baltimore, going 15-30 for 170 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. Peter King pointed out that Manning “controlled the line of scrimmage,” which I think might be Ebonics or urban hipster-speak or for “Managed the game well.” Never mind that there were at LEAST 35 people involved with this game, including the guys who actually hold the yard markers, who had more control over the line of scrimmage on any given play than did Peyton Manning; it’s a rule that if a football team wins, their quarterback somehow played well, even if every possible indicator of his performance says that he played poorly.

I guess this strange new category of quarterback has emerged in the media because nobody wants to admit that a team can possibly win a football game with a crappy quarterback, or a crappy performance by a quarterback; it would undermine all their season previews, for one thing. And truth be told, it’s not advisable to expect to beat any good team without strong quarterbacking, but it can happen. The biggest surprise of these great NFL playoffs so far, in fact, has been the Colts winning two straight despite sub-par performances by Manning. No team’s fortunes are typically more tied to the play of a single guy than the Colts'. So in order to make sense of that anomaly without confusing themselves or having to do too much work, sportswriters need to still say something good about the quarterback, so they say he managed the game well. Now, I realize that Tom Brady played pretty poorly for most of last week’s game and ended up winning, but he’s not 30 years old yet, he’s only 28, so if he plays poorly and the team wins, he’s “there in the big moments” or “clutch,” but certainly is not experienced enough yet to be a game manager. He’s also probably too good-looking to be a game manager even when he turns 30; at that point he’ll likely start using “star quality” or “star power” to win games where he throws 4 interceptions. That, I believe, is a Tony Kornheiser invention, used liberally this year to talk America through the ongoing Brett Favre shit show.

The Conference Title Games. I’m pretty sure that game management won’t win you either of these upcoming conference title games, though. You’re going to have to do better than that, and I'm going to have to stop writing in the second-person. The thing is, of the four quarterbacks playing this weekend, the only one I’d only bet big money on to have a good or great game is Drew Brees (and I’m having trouble finding a sports book that takes bets on individual quarterback performances, but hypothetically speaking…). Manning hasn’t played well in two weeks, and has that playoff history with the Patriots to contend with. I’m not about to be dismissive of him either, though; a monster game would in no way shock me, particularly because the Patriots’ secondary can be a bit of a smoke-and-mirrors operation, and maybe the last two weeks were just well-deserved good breaks for Manning and he'll put it in overdrive and pay his team back for the pickup this week.

Tom Brady’s been plagued by interceptions in four of his last six big-stage games (last two regular season games against Indy, last year’s playoff loss to Denver, and last weekend against the Chargers). He’s lost three of those four. It’s sexy to cite the all-time playoff record and the head-to-head record versus Manning, but the recent trends are not the greatest, and Brady’s performance all year has been very good and tough, but not razor-sharp.

Rex Grossman certainly isn’t the NFL leper he’s been made out to be by all those folks that like to pick on short, immature quarterbacks. There are at least 15 teams in the league that would be better off with Rex under center on Opening Day next year than whomever they plan to run out there. But he’ll probably make a lot of bad, stupid throws on Sunday and if the Bears win, it will be in spite of him (he’s also clearly not old enough to be a game manager.)

There is one thing I am ABSOLUTELY sure will happen this weekend. Bill Belichick will, without a shadow of a doubt, coach a better game than Tony Dungy. And that doesn’t even mean Belichick will coach a good game, it’s just that you and I both know damn well that there’s no way in hell Tony Dungy is coaching a good game this weekend. The only chance Dungy has to be the best coach on the field at 6:00 p.m. Sunday would be if the Patriots fired Belichick and hired Rick Pitino in his place. I’d rather have Marty Schottenheimer coaching my team this weekend than Tony Dungy. (I probably wouldn’t rather have Herm Edwards coaching, to be fair, but I’d rather have Pitino coaching my football team than Herm). But I do think the Colts could win the game despite Dungy; there are times when their offense simply can’t be dealt with in the RCA Dome, and this weekend could be one of those times.

In the NFC, it seems to me that the only thing that can stop the Saints from shredding the Bears this weekend is the weather. The Bears’ defense is one of the most overrated of all time, and is barely average without Tommie Harris at Defensive Tackle (the most important position on the defensive side of the ball, in case you were wondering, and I’m writing that in a Stephen A. Smith accent and diction for emphasis, quite frankly). Trying to go score-for-score with the Saints is a recipe for disaster for the Bears offense. But if the weather (31 degrees with snow showers?) makes it sloppy and ugly, the indoor Saints could have some trouble.

In Indianapolis, there are two things to look for: first, what will Belichick decide he wants to take away from the Colts’ offense, and how will the Colts adapt? Belichick’s general strategy is always to figure out what an offense likes to do the most and focus on taking that one thing away from them, forcing them to beat you with something they don’t really like doing. Typically the blueprint for beating Manning is to blitz the hell out of him, but Manning stung the Patriots with some freakishly good throws under pressure at Gillette Stadium in November. Will Belichick go the intense pressure route again, or will he cook up some of that weird shit, like playing with no down linemen or sending his secondary out on the field wearing leather helmets?

The other thing is, when the Colts and Pats played in November, the Patriots were running the ball at will for most of the first half but abandoned the run in the second, which seemed like an error in judgment from where I sat. The Colts this year had the worst run defense in the history of the NFL (literally, I believe), but have gotten by the past two weeks by playing eight or nine in the box against horribly one-dimensional offenses with coaches that were not swift enough to adapt on the fly. I expect the Patriots to run roughshod over the Colts for some extended period of time on Sunday; exactly WHEN that happens will depend on the Colts’ defensive schemes and which poison they pick. If they go eight in the box the whole game again, Brady could throw the ball 70 times and probably win. The point is, I just can’t see the Colts’ defense being adaptable enough to keep the Patriots out of the end zone. So Indy will likely have to force turnovers and play extremely well on offense to win…but that scenario is, in fact, eminently plausible.

I hate predictions, but I’ll make them anyway.
Patriots 34, Colts 20
Saints 38, Bears 17

Mahalo.

Pats' Memorable Win was an Age-Old Mix of Fortune, Smarts, and Marty

2007-01-15T20:24:00.001-08:00

The role of lady luck in the Patriots’ six-year run of success has been a hot topic the past 48 hours, after the Pats managed to once again win a game that they could have lost about sixteen different ways. By now, anyone who isn’t a Patriots fan is sick of their incessant winning, and many such fans are eager to find any reason (officiating and luck, to name two) to discredit the team's success. Patriot fans, meanwhile, cite heart, preparation, attention to detail, and great coaching as the reason for the improbable comebacks and big-game wins that just seem to keep coming as steadily as a drumbeat. Sunday’s win over the Chargers offered shining examples of both, with a dash of Martyball mixed in to seal the deal.

The Patriots major good-luck play came in the third quarter, when Tom Brady was creamed and fumbled the ball on a third-and-thirteen. The Pats got the initial the good fortune of having the ball bounce straight into the arms of Matt Light, but Light was tackled to bring up fourth down on the very outer edge of field goal range. After the play, though, Chargers cornerback Drayton Florence inexplicably jumped off the ground and head-butted Daniel Graham of the Patriots, drawing a two-handed shove to the face from Graham and a personal foul penalty that resulted in a Pats first down and, ultimately, ended up giving New England three points (consult the final score to find out if those ended up being important). To recap: Brady gets sacked and fumbles; he doesn’t lose the ball but DOES lose several yards, but he ends up with the first down anyway because of Charger stupidity and because Graham managed to avoid the retaliation personal foul that is typically called in post-play scrums. That’s pretty lucky.

Later, in perhaps the game’s most memorable play, with about six minutes left and the Patriots down eight, Brady was picked off over the middle by Chargers Safety Marlon McCree, but Troy Brown stripped McCree of the ball and it was recovered by Reche Caldwell, resulting in another Patriots first down, which was promptly turned into a game-tying touchdown (and two-point conversion). This play may have been lucky for the legend of Brady, who, because of the strip and ONLY because of the strip, narrowly avoided a second-straight interception-plagued divisional playoff loss. But for the Patriots, there was nothing lucky about it; this was a brilliant heads-up play by Troy Brown, who was thinking and acting in a spot where Plaxico Burress or Terrell Owens would have been undoing their chinstraps and screaming at the quarterback. It’s been argued in many forums that McCree had his head up his Schottenheimer when he picked the ball off and tried to run with it instead of simply knocking it to the turf and taking the turnover on downs. That’s a fair point, but most defensive backs at any level are going to instinctively catch that ball, especially in traffic. I can’t fault McCree too heavily on the play.

So in the end, there is some luck and some brilliance at play here, and that’s without mentioning perhaps the biggest factor in the game, the stunning re-invention of Martyball. I refuse to call the Patriots lucky for being the beneficiary of Marty Schottenheimer’s playoff misfortune, not when it’s more predictable than Peter King mentioning café lattes in his columns. And certainly not when Schottenheimer’s staff could only find a way to let the unstoppable LaDanian Tomlinson touch the ball EIGHT TIMES in the entire second half of a game where his team led almost wire-to-wire. And certainly not when Schottenheimer burned a valuable timeout on a ludicrous challenge of the Troy Brown strip, presumably for the sole reason that he doesn’t wear a headset and can’t communicate with anyone on his staff who could have actually SEEN the replay on a TV monitor in time to offer any advice. (He’s so old school!)

Yes, it’s true. Martyball proved to be as adept at game-planning new ways to lose as Belichick is at game-planning new ways to win. For almost 20 years, it was Marty’s ultraconservative nature that cost so many teams playoff wins, playoff berths, and big wins in classic tilts, typically by refusing to put the game in his quarterback’s hands at key moments, or by playing for overtime when a some low-level swashbuckling might have yielded a shot at a win in regulation.

But amazingly, now that he has a first-year starter at quarterback and a running back who may well be the best of all time and absolutely could not be stopped by the Patriots for any reason, Marty took it to the air, choosing to protect his lead by repeatedly going downfield to receivers who had had the drops all day. You know what’s really sick about it? If Schottenheimer had simply stolen Herm Edwards’ putrid offensive game plan from the Chiefs’ AFC Wild Card loss a week earlier (super-glue the ball to the Running Back’s forearm and don’t let him leave the field under any circumstances), he probably would have won the game. That’s right: Herm Edwards could have won that game. At least he uses a friggin’ headset.

So was it typical Patriot luck that got them to yet another AFC title game? Yeah, there was some. Or was it that winning knack for the big play when there was no margin for error? Yeah, there was some of that too. Or was it Martyball, adapted yet again to minimize the strengths of even the league’s strongest roster? Yeah, it was definintely that.

Or I guess you could just say it was more of the same exact things we’ve been seeing for years and years now in the NFL playoffs. Perhaps the old cliché “Some things never change” would cover it? If you buy that, it doesn’t bode well for Dungy, Manning, or the legions that are tired of the Patriots, does it?

Quite Frankly, You Suck at Writing Things

2007-01-11T10:28:00.000-08:00

I’ll admit, I’m a little late with this one, but who’s splitting hairs when there’s an opportunity to have a little fun with a Stephen A. Smith column? Smith, the yelling columnist/commentator (he yells on camera AND in print) who covers the Philly sports scene by spending seven days a week in Manhattan, took New York Giants coach Tom Coughlin to task after the Eagles’ 23-20 playoff win last weekend. Smith derided Coughlin’s blustering sideline antics, team discipline, and rudimentary media relations skills and, I think, if I read the article correctly, cited these as reasons Coughlin would likely be fired this week. Coughlin, of course, was NOT fired, and will return next season as head coach.

I’ll resist the urge to take any cheap shots at Smith for being wrong in predicting that Coughlin would get the axe; hindsight is 20/20, and it would not have been surprising if Coughlin HAD been fired. I will not, however, resist the urge to challenge Smith’s sporting logic and grammatical constructs.

(I will also borrow the Fire Joe Morgan format for badgering terrible sports columnists with the written word; direct excerpts from the article are in boldface).

Article opens:

As always, there is a clear-cut sign that a coach has located the expiration date on his tenure and he's accepted the reality that his job security is gone.

It's when exasperation is so evident that it isn't even considered a temper tantrum anymore.

There is also a clear-cut sign that a person is a poor writer. Actually, there are two: 1) When you have to read their opening sentence three times to figure out if it makes sense, and 2) when the writer does not use complete sentences. Congratulations, two for two.

Smith then explained that Coughlin’s whining and avoidance of questions about his future with the Giants was unbecoming, and was a perfect example of why Coughlin has been under fire.

Coughlin whined. He shook his head incredulously, face cringing along the way, disgusted with the inevitable. If only he could have somehow dictated questions the way he was expected to dictate this team's performance, yet never did.

If only, Stephen. If only. If only that sentence and comparison had seen the desk of a copy editor, perhaps it never would have seen the light of day. If only, yet never did. Quoth the Raven, yet never did.

For the record, the Giants played a valiant game in defeat last night. As Coughlin kept reiterating, they fought hard and never surrendered. And if someone remembered to tell Coughlin how far those intangibles, coupled with the same results, might yet get him, perhaps he wouldn't have sounded like the latest NFL coach destined for the unemployment line within the next 48 hours.

You hear that, Tom Coughlin? If someone, perhaps an assistant coach or close friend, had remembered to tell you how far those intangibles, coupled with the same results, might yet get you, perhaps you wouldn’t sound like the latest NFL coach destined for the unemployment line in the next 48 hours!!!! What intangibles, you ask? I’m not sure, but if Stephen A. Smith said it, then he probably yelled it, and it was probably important, so you should figure out what he’s talking about and then maybe you’ll be able to keep your job.

Maybe it can be figured out as a math equation.

Those (unspecified) Intangibles + The Same Results = Unemployment line/48 hrs.

I think that’s at least as easy to understand as Stephen A’s message to Coughlin. Someone should have remembered to tell him that. They forgot to tell him. So essentially, none of it is actually Coughlin’s fault, it’s the fault of the person who forgot to deliver the math equation, so THAT person should be fired, along with Coughlin, because he lacks those intangibles coupled with the same results. And he cringes.

"We played our tails off," Coughlin said. "We fought. There was no quit in this team. Obviously, you can always find things you're disappointed in, that you could have done better, following a loss. But that doesn't take away from the fact I'm proud of these guys. Proud to coach them. Proud of the season we've had."

Nonsense!

The Giants have nothing to be proud of today compared with the Eagles.

He didn’t say he was proud compared to the Eagles. He just said he was proud. I mean, I’d challenge the assertion Coughlin should be proud of the season his team had, when it included a five-game losing streak and a .500 record. But Stephen himself just said, about two run-ons and three sentence fragments ago, that the Giants played valiantly against the Eagles. Why doesn’t Coughlin deserve any credit for the fact that his team played valiantly?

I hereby yell the word ‘nonsense’ back and YOU, Mr. Smith!! (and raise you an exclamation point, making my write-yelling slightly more emphatic)

"We certainly hurt ourselves," Coughlin said. "What else would you want me to say?"

Well, what about your future, Coach? Have you thought about what's going to happen?

"No comment," Coughlin said.

But Coach, your team didn't perform up to snuff.

"What are you talking about? We lost, 23-20."

Coach, what about all those expectations coming into this season?

"What are you talking about?" Coughlin continued. "We made the playoffs. We lost the first game of the playoffs."

Then he mumbled, "What do you want?" under his breath.

No wonder Philadelphia's so happy to have Andy Reid around.

"I'm not concerned," Coughlin said, alluding to his future with the Giants. "I figured that would come up."

Now, here’s a crafty way to fill out your word count in a newspaper column. Take the transcript of the post-game press conference (or watch it on ESPNews), cherry pick a few answers the coach gave, then insert questions in between the answers, as if you were the reporter who had asked them. Boom! Column finished, and now you’re off to prepare some questions for tonight’s episode of Quite Frankly on ESPN, in which you’ll interview Isaiah Thomas about overcoming the streets of Chicago as a child. If you happen to be the host of such a show.

That, my friend, is what they call first-class analysis.

And on the topic of Coughlin, there were in fact a few more things to consider before all but guaranteeing that he’d be fired. Yes, Coughlin is terrible with the media, and pretty much always pissed off on the sidelines. But if these were things that got coaches fired, there would be about six pro football coaches still working in the world.

It’s also worth considering that, while he’s apparently an asshole and his teams have struggled with discipline and played poorly in big games, Coughlin is one of only five coaches in the NFL to have made the playoffs the last two years. His quarterback is clearly having a hard time handling puberty and may be slightly autistic, the team is filled with selfish, me-first players that were on the team and behaving like that well before Coughlin arrived, and the team was absolutely ravaged by injuries this year---hardly things that can be blamed on Coughlin. There is a perspective here that suggests that Coughlin may have done a better job than he’s getting credit for.

But don’t ask Stephen A. Smith for a nuanced discussion of his points on anything. He’s in the sentence-fragment business. And why should he know anything about the details of Tom Coughlin’s tenure? HEL-LOOO. He covers PhilaDELphia Sports!!!!!

!!!!!!

!!!!

The Great McGwire Bitchslap: Big Red Takes the Fall for Baseball's Indifference

2007-01-10T08:26:00.000-08:00

Mark McGwire became the ultimate fall guy for the steroids era yesterday. Not because he was the worst of them, or because of his performance on Capital Hill, but because he happened to represent the first chance for anyone other than Bud Selig and the MLB Players’ Association to exact judgment on steroids in the game and the deceitfulness that has surrounded them. The voters sent a message that steroid use may not cost you your money or fame, but at least you’ll have to think about them costing you something significant. Sure, for some voters, it was just a chance to be self-righteous, and for others it was probably a chance to pig pile on someone other than A-Rod. But I’ll assume for now that the majority of voters were thoughtful in their consideration of a situation that was a quandary, where yes or no was no longer discernable by numbers, records, longevity, or indelible moments of greatness.

I’m not of a mind that steroid users are to be strictly labeled cheaters who don’t deserve to be enshrined in the hallowed halls of Cooperstown alongside the other immortals of yore. Too sanctimonious. I also don’t really think steroid abuse in baseball is a moral issue, or that Mark McGwire deserves to be punished for his misdeeds so that I’ll someday be able to take my son to a ballgame and feel confident that he’s rooting for only the best and brightest our society has to offer.

But I do believe that rampant, obvious steroid usage, unchecked over a long period of time, would threaten the viability and credibility of Major League Baseball. In fact, it’s already happened, but not to a point of no return. The situation can still be controlled to a reasonable degree; no sport will ever be drug-free, but I think a legitimate commitment to keeping Major League Baseball free of steroids, HGH and the like---which are considerably more impactful than amphetamines, cork, or spitballs---is the right thing for the sport. Not because steroids are any more fundamentally wrong than cocaine or coffee, but because they put baseball on the road to becoming the WWE, or professional bodybuilding, where steroids are an open, accepted fact of life. Nobody says “I don’t watch pro wrestling because I’m disgusted by the steroid abuse.” Non-fans probably don’t watch pro wrestling or bodybuilding because these are idiotic, cartoonish, and completely marginal sports that use juiced-up freaks (and other assorted gimmicks) to attract viewers. Sure, the WWE may be one of the most popular forms of entertainment in America, but baseball is more than entertainment; it is a sport, and it needs credibility and viability to keep from becoming marginalized or relegated to the Spike Channel.

Messages needed to be sent and true examples needed to be made, not to placate the fans or media, but to preserve the sport, and to safeguard its future. Steroids may have fed the entertainment aspect of Baseball and helped produce higher revenues, but they threatened to sap the sport of its real life blood: truly great athletes playing one of the most unique games in the world at a its highest level, competing for superiority against a backdrop of rich history. THAT'S why the real fan goes the park. That's why we watch on TV.

But nobody in baseball with any authority or influence wanted to send a message that it needed to stop, probably because everyone from player to owner was getting rich off the quick dollar from the added entertainment value that steroids brought. Everyone kept their mouths shut and their hands in their pockets, refusing to acknowledge that the public could sense the slow metamorphasis of game into Roman Gladiator show. (And none of this nonsense about Ken Caminiti or Jose Canseco being heroes for having the balls to speak. Caminiti got coked out of his mind and spilled the beans to Sports Illustrated, probably for more coke money, and Canseco needed to sell books. If either really had any interest in changing the situation for the better, they would have been at high schools or minor league fields counseling young players not to do what he did. Instead he was in hotel rooms smoking crack with hookers and Canseco was on The Surreal Life.)

MLB never did anything to try and get the steroid/HGH situation under control until its proverbial feet were held to a white-hot flame of public, media, and government pressure. Even then, the real commitment was suspect. The original testing programs were paper-thin, and there is still legitimate skepticism about how effective and fair the testing and punitive process really is today. Players (the likes of McGwire, Bonds, Sosa, and Giambi) also refused to acknowledge the issue, claimed to know nothing, or claimed not to speak English, offered apologies for things they couldn’t offer any specifics about.

The 2007 Hall of Fame voting is the first situation to come along where you have an obvious, high-profile steroid user (And McGwire used steroids...let’s not put our collective heads in the sand like Selig) and Major League Baseball can’t police the situation itself, can’t control how the sensitive issue is dealt with. It's in somebody else's hands. It’s the closest thing yet to a public referendum on the issue, and the message has been sent. I don’t really know whether it’s fair, or whether it’s the right way to do it, but I do know it happened because it was the first opportunity for anyone to override the power of Selig and send a very real message about a very real problem that was denied for a very long time.

If McGwire's exclusion from the Hall of Fame is a black eye for baseball, then so be it. Sometimes, when you act like an idiot, you deserve a black eye. I just hope it’s enough to make the guardians of the sport of baseball re-think how seriously they take this issue, because the game of baseball means a lot to me, and I want it to have a long and truly prosperous future.

As for Big Mac himself, I feel a bit bad for the guy, because he always seemed like a nice guy and certainly gave us a lot of thrills. But if he had a leg to stand on here, a case to plead about getting an honor he feels he earned and deserves, then where the hell is he? If an injustice has been done here, then where’s his defiant, Palmeiro-like stand against the angry lynch mob?

Previous steroid-related rants and raves:
http://lukereport.150m.com/thoughts2004/thoughts120204.html

And this, just because:
http://lukereport.150m.com/thoughts2004/aceandgary.htm

Insert Headline Containing Phrase "Gator Bait" Here

2007-01-09T08:52:00.000-08:00

You’d probably have to go back to the Cincinnati Reds’ sweep of the Oakland A’s (Bash Brothers) in 1990 to find a worse performance by a heavy favorite in a championship game than the one put forth by the Ohio State Buckeyes last night. That was one of the all-time, absolute no-shows, and Troy Smith was, just as he’s been all season for OSU, the leader of the pack. Listen, I don’t want to lead a charge to crap on an individual college kid for faltering on a big stage; I like Troy Smith, and I liked him even more after he got more exposure this year. He absolutely deserved the Heisman Trophy and accomplished a lot more in his career than most college quarterbacks have.

That’s why I found his entire performance last night, from the opening kickoff through the post-game press conferences, incredibly disappointing. It’s one thing to falter, but Smith looked like he really didn’t care and as if he did nothing to prepare for the game.

Three major things stood out:

- The unusual amount of smiling and laughing that Smith seemed to be doing on the field in the midst of that absolute tsunami of a beating the Gators were handing the Buckeyes in the first half. I actually began debating with a friend whether Smith was just happy to be living it up in the spotlight as the Heisman Trophy winner, or if the smiles were a nervous psychological response to a bad situation that he clearly didn’t expect to be in;

- A quarterbacking performance that was so far beyond bad that it’s difficult to describe with anything other than to the numbers: 4-14 for 35 yards. And quite honestly, the fact that he only even attempted 14 throws suggests that this was indeed a colossal failure on the part of the entire OSU program, and his offensive line did him no favors, but for God’s sake Troy…make something happen. Those numbers are going to redefine the entire concept of the post-Heisman letdown game. Ty Detmer separated BOTH shoulders in a game after winning the 1990 Heisman and his team still put up 28 points. This was just abominable.

- Smith’s Isaiah Thomas-like postgame press conference in which he seemed oddly cool, calm, and collected and not at all disappointed about his or his team’s performance, even offering the quote: “If this is the worst thing that happens to us in our lives, then I’m pretty cool.” For a guy who's going to have to fight pretty hard to make it at the next level, he sure took losing pretty easy.

I don’t expect Troy Smith to cry, yell at people, break things, or slam the table after losing. In fact, I have no real right to take issue with the way he carried himself in and after this game. But if I were an NFL executive looking at drafting Smith, I’d have a very hard time getting past what I saw on Monday. I really would. This is a guy whose leadership, toughness, and character are supposed to be the attributes that make up for a lack of NFL size and polish. Where were those attributes on Monday night, in the biggest game of his life? Why did he look like he was quarterbacking a Rock n’ Jock beach football game on MTV?

A couple more thoughts on the title game:

- Have you ever seen a pair of first-half field goals give a team more energy than the ones kicked by Florida’s Chris Hetland last night? He absolutely hammered a 43-yarder and a 40-yarder after going 4-for-13 on the regular season. And he not only avoided being stuffed into a ball bag and sent home on a UPS plane by the Florida defensive line, but actually kept the Gators’ surge of momentum alive right through the end of the half. Normally, field goal attempts are treated as missed opportunities, but these ones clearly fired up the Florida sideline and crowd simply because they were so unexpected and nicely executed.

- Just once in my life, I'd like for a guy on a team I root for to get a helmetless, flying sack of the Heisman Trophy winner (or Brett Favre). That must be a phenomenal. I think I'd yell pretty loud.

- Ohio State has a Speed Coach? How fast do you have to be to get that job? At the University of Miami, they have a similar position on staff. He's called the Speed Dealer. Don’t let the title fool you though, he has a lot more than just speed.

- Florida Senior Wide Receiver Dallas Baker’s postgame interview was nearly as dominant as the Gators’ performance between the lines: THREE (3) variations of my favorite post-victory quote, “No one gave us a chance!” in the span of a minute, all while wearing an “I can do great things through Jesus” t-shirt. Amen, brother. Just Amen.

Thoughts for the Day, January 5, 2007

2007-01-05T07:45:00.000-08:00

Happy New Year everybody!

In his column ranking the top ten “most important” sports stories of 2006, ESPN Page 2’s Scoop Jackson ranks his own feud with former Page 2 columnist Jason Whitlock at number six. Before you scratch your head wondering who either of them are and why you should care, consider for a moment that Jackson says the beef, started by Whitlock, “makes what Michael Eric Dyson is doing to Bill Cosby seem pale.” Kind of makes you think, doesn’t it? When you put it like that, Scoop, it almost seems downright humble to keep the story out of the top five.

My goodness, this camel has large feet!

Does Notre Dame’s latest BCS embarrassment mean a moratorium on sportswriters using the phrase “Irish Eyes are Smiling” when writing about the ND football program? I’ll really miss that damn phrase, but I trust the knights of the keyboards to come up with something equally loquacious to describe this dark forest of soul-searching and doubt that will surround Charlie Weis’s team until its next big win. I’m guessing “Now comes the hard part for Charlie Weis” will be something you’ll see more than once.

Not that this comment has any connection whatsoever to the preceding paragraph, but is it a backhanded compliment to say that if someone just tightened up their mid-section a little, they’d be shaped exactly like Homer Simpson?

In twenty-five or so years, when Jim Mora III is an up-and-coming hotshot young coordinator waiting for a crack at an NFL head coaching position, can everyone just promise to keep their mouths shut and let some team hire him? Please? With one more well-groomed generation of success, that family could be the Kennedys of under-achieving NFL teams and interview room hilarity.

How is it possible that I went thirty years in life before realizing that its hilarious when a college basketball analyst calls a guy “a good ball-handler?”

It’s always a holiday season unto itself in the Philly area when the Eagles are in the playoffs and even the casual Eagles fan digs deep into the closet for his finest vintage Birds gear. Earlier today I thought for a second that I had seen a man wearing Mike Mamula jersey---right up there with Irving Fryar and Bobby Hoying on my “Favorite Eagles Jerseys that For Some Reason Never Got Donated to the Salvation Army” list. On closer inspection, though, I was relieved to find that it was actually a woman wearing a Mike Mamula jersey. Whew. That was close. Other favorites seen before 10 a.m. today: Duce Staley Eagles jersey; Ricky Watters Eagles jersey; man in Terrell Owens Eagles jersey and Eagles baseball cap with mechanical Eagle with automatic flapping wings and high-pitched shrieking sound mounted to the brim.

This week’s episode of the hit sitcom “Johnny Damon Isn’t Smart!” features Johnny breaking down the potential value of newly-signed Doug Mientkiewicz to the Yankee infield. “There's not too many first basemen who could save two, three runs a game, but I've seen Doug Mientkiewicz do it.” If that’s true, I predict that Chien-Ming Wang will have a fucking NEGATIVE E.R.A. this year! Swear to God, you heard it here first, because he gets all those ground balls, and Mientkiewicz is…oh my God…awesome. More Kendall Jackson, Johnny?

Hopefully Stuart Scott Doesn't Realize This

2006-12-19T20:07:00.001-08:00

I don’t want to jinx anything, but it looks like we may actually escape an annoying, cutesy nickname for Daisuke Matsuzaka, thanks to the unlikely combination of Scott Boras and media ignorance.

Let me explain: As the Matsuzaka negotiating period headed into the home stretch two weeks ago and Boras took his snake charming act to the press in an effort to spook Red Sox management, he began using Matsuzaka’s first name in public for the first time. We now know his name is pronounced “Dice-K” (but of course spelled “Daisuke”), but nobody ever bothered to officially clarify that point until he actually signed. What’s more, Boras had already smarmily launched the nicknamed “D-Mat” on the American public, so when the media heard him say “Dice-K” for the first time, they all just assumed he was tossing out another handle for the kid, so all the papers quoted Boras the next day, in print, as having said “Dice-K.”

Now, everyone’s writing Dice-K. Dice-K goes house-hunting. Dick-K likes rice. Dice-K scratched his nuts at 3:41 am today. It’s taken hold, and thankfully nipped D-Mat in the bud. But when you say Dice-K, you’re just saying his real name, which is great. It satisfies all the dipshits that need to give every popular athlete a cutesy nickname, and it also satisfies those of us that are content to converse on the topic of sports like literate grown-ups. And it’s also got to be the first instance in history of a person having a nickname that only exists in writing.

On the down side, I was legitimately disappointed for a few moments to find out that Matsuzaka’s first name isn’t pronounced “Die-SOO-kay”, as I originally presumed it would be. The thought of hearing Jerry Remy say “Die-SOOKIE” for the next six years was actually more exciting to me than Matsuzaka’s supposed six-pitch repertoire. But six years of “Matza-Soccer” will still be pretty good.

Not that I Enjoy Defending George Karl, but....

2006-12-19T19:56:00.000-08:00

Prior to suspensions being handed out for the Nuggets-Knicks brawl, Peter Vescey of the New York Post offered up a column entitled “NUGGETS' KARL ALSO EARNED BAN.” The column argued exactly what its headline indicated it would: that in addition to all the major combatants and Isaiah Thomas, George Karl also deserved to be suspended for helping precipitate the brawl by running up the score. Vescey writes:

Karl and Larry Brown are friends. So, naturally Karl despises Thomas. So, naturally, Thomas despises Karl. Truth is they probably had no use for each other long before Karl became Crusader Rabbit/Brown's Guardian Angel.

Karl essentially taunted Thomas by keeping his regulars on the floor in the end of a rout. He coordinated running up the score. Such disrespect sets the stage for reprisal. It begs for a beating. Staying too long with your starters also violates common courtesy; it defies logic to have your star out there late in a blowout.

Now, I know full well that I’m not doing myself any favors by attempting to argue logic with Peter Vescey. I get that. But did he really just suggest that a professional basketball coach be suspended for violating common courtesy? How in the world is “leaving your regulars in too long” a suspendable offense? If the Knicks had simply played out the last minute and a half without incident instead of trying to beat up the Nuggets for being better than them, would Vescey still be making this argument? Because, even though no brawl would have happened, Karl would still have been in violation of these Vescian laws of courtesy that pervade the island of Manhattan like the smell of fresh blueberry muffins every Saturday night….AND DAMMIT HE NEEDS TO PAY! And while he had the chance, David Stern should have tacked on another three games because Karl failed to wash his hands after using the urinal at halftime. That shit is unsanitary, and it spreads germs.