2007 MLB Season Preview Series: NL West

Even though the Barry Bonds sideshow has continued to dominate headlines, this really has been the least-compelling division in baseball for quite some time now. It's been since 2003 that a legitimate contender came out of the National League West—and even that team, the 101-win Giants, bit it in the division series against the Marlins. NL West clubs are 2-12 in the playoffs since 2004, and the San Diego Padres have taken the division crown each of the past two seasons despite failing to crack 90 wins either time. It’s competitive as hell out there for sure, but more as a result of parity than excellence. From the blissful ignorance of late winter, it's hard to think any of these teams is ready for a real breakthrough season and playoff rampage; on the other hand, surprise playoff runs from previously lackluster franchises are all the rage in Major League Baseball these days, so we must be vigilant.

Truthfully, it’s been a while since an NL West team even started a season with legitimately high hopes; each franchise has had its unique flaws. Colorado has had to resort to dampening balls in a humidor before games to try and make the sport played in Denver more closely resemble baseball. San Francisco, desperate to stay competitive every season to keep its self-financed ballpark filled, has been dragged down by age, fielding some of the oldest everyday lineups in league history the past two seasons. Arizona has recognized the need to re-load after a meteoric rise to the 2001 World Title and then the long, gradual erosion of the core of veterans that brought them that crown. The Padres have been a model of consistency and stability over the past decade, overachieving nicely but always lacking the talent to really scare anyone in the postseason. The Dodgers have fought through organizational turmoil (managerial, front office, and ownership changes) to stay competitive but tantalizingly out-of-balance, prone to offensive droughts and debilitating injuries.

2007 will be another year of strong starting pitching throughout most of the NL West (save, of course, for Colorado), and the emergence some of young, unproven bats looks to be the x-factor that will nudge one team into the 88- to 92-win zone and take the crown. The conservative money here is on Dodger Blue, where young bats, power arms, and an active G.M. should give Los Angeles the resources to sneak into the Fall Tournament.

Here’s a team-by-team look:

Los Angeles Dogders (2006: 88-74, second place)
Those who watch and cover the Dodgers seemed to bid a hearty good riddance to J.D. Drew, but the team did very little to replace his .393 OBP and 100 RBI, failing in efforts to land Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee. In order to win the West, the Dodgers will need big steps forward from some combination of Andre Ethier, Wilson Betemit, James Loney, and Russell Martin as well as health and solid run-producing from Nomar Garciaparra and Jeff Kent. On the bright side, those possibilities, while not sure things, are at least possible (as opposed to the Padres hoping for runs to fall out of the sky or the Giants hoping the fountain of youth springs out of McCovey Cove.) In addition, G.M. Ned Colletti has shown the ability to wheel and deal with the best of them in mid-season (he picked up Greg Maddux, Julio Lugo, and Betemit last year) and has the resources to do it again, so expect the Dodgers to be active in the market for another bat come July, if not sooner.

With three power arms at the front of the rotation (Derek Lowe, Jason Schmidt, and Brad Penny) and an emerging nuclear arm at the back (Jonathan Broxton), the Los Angeles staff can be special, although consistency tends to be an issue with Lowe and Penny.

Juan Pierre, believe it or not, is a downgrade in centerfield from Kenny Lofton; it’s about a 30-point drop in on-base percentage in the leadoff hole, which is tough news for an iffy lineup. But of all the teams in the division, the Dodgers are in the best position for their unknowns to emerge, their pitching to live up to its considerable potential, and to get the help they need down the road. Just how big they come up in any of these three categories will determine whether the Blue Crew can be the first NL West team to take a playoff series since 2002.

San Diego (2006: 88-74, first place by virtue of winning season series vs. L.A.)
The two-time defending division champs added Greg Maddux to a good pitching staff in pitcher-friendly Petco Field. But the losses of Mike Piazza, Dave Roberts, and perhaps most significantly, manager Bruce Bochy, could well be enough to loosen the Pads’ tenuous hold on the division crown. That’s not to say Roberts and Piazza were world-beaters last year, but they were two of the team’s top five offensive performers, and this is a team that is STARVED for runs. They could ill afford to go backwards in that department, but it appears that they did. While it’s hard to quantify a manager’s effect on a team, the Padres regularly overachieved during Bochy’s tenure and have had a reputation for great consistency; new manager Bud Black will have a big job trying to replicate that and to find a lineup that can keep this team in contention.

In defense of San Diego GM Kevin Towers, building around pitching is probably the only way to go at Petco. The Padres will likely have real trouble signing hitters until they decide to reconfigure that cavernous monstrosity. Until then, star-in-the-making first baseman Adrian Gonzalez will try to continue his maturation process amid lineup help such as Mike Cameron, Khalil Greene, Termell Sledge, the young-but-heralded Kevin Kouzmanoff, and the Giambi Giles brothers (Marcus and Brian, to whom the post-Victor Conte era has NOT been kind). On the upside, catcher Josh Bard was a major bright spot last year, coming over from the Red Sox for Doug Mirabelli to throw up a nasty .943 OPS in 231 at-bats. Keeping it at that level for a 550 at-bats would be a real statement, but San Diego fans will take any ray of offensive light they can get.

While park size has been a factor in the Padres’ apparent pitching stability the past few seasons, they still will compete on the strength of their rotation and bullpen. Winning the division despite a sub-par year from Jake Peavy was no small feat, and I’m a big believer in the effect that Greg Maddux can have on the young ace this year. In the bullpen, Cla Meredith (also stolen from the Red Sox…TUMS please) was even more of a bright spot than Josh Bard was on offense, basically destroying everyone he faced with little mercy, to the tune of a 1.07 ERA over 50.1 relief innings. If he can avoid the yearly fluctuations that big-league relievers seem prone to, he’ll team with Trevor Hoffman and Scot Linebrink to form a triumvirate of relief that ranks among baseball’s best back-ends.

Clearly, San Diego playing to its home-field advantage in building around pitching, but unless Kevin Kouzmanoff blossoms quickly, the Giles brothers rediscover the tonic of life, or Kevin Towers can add one or two good gap hitters during the year without blowing up his staff, the offensive problems just seem way too glaring. Second place seems reasonable, but the playoffs do not.

San Francisco (2006: 76-85, third place)
Although GM Brian Sabean is slightly hamstrung by a hands-on owner who needs to keep his ballpark full to continue making mortgage payments on the exquisite AT&T Park, it still is mind-boggling to me that he hasn’t found a way to get any younger on offense in three years. The Giants’ projected lineup averages 36 years old this season, and while Dave Roberts represents a reasonable upgrade in center field, even a best-case scenario performance by everyone in the Giants’ lineup would likely not add up to 90 wins.

First off, Omar Vizquel, Rich Aurilia, and Ray Durham (SS, 1B, and 2B, respectively) all had best-case scenario seasons LAST year, and all are a year older. If you expect them all to repeat those performances and for third baseman Pedro Feliz to build on his .281 OBP, then I guess the Giants could have a decent shot at improving. Provided, of course, that Barry Bonds plays 140 games and Randy Winn returns to the form that made him good enough to be traded for Lou Pinella in 2002. (I’m not sure how good that is, but it better be a lot better than he was last year.) Yeah…not a lot for Mad Dog Russo to be excited about this year.

That said, I don’t put it past Barry Bonds to take enough as-yet-unheard-of horse drugs to hit 50 homers and walk 300 times this year. I really don’t. At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if he found some way to break Rickey Henderson’s single-season stolen-base record by the All Star break by having Barbaro’s three good legs grafted onto his body. As much as it pains me to say it, he’s still an X-factor, because he’s probably crazy enough to find a way to be one. (But I still despise when writers and broadcasters say “When he’s healthy, he’s still the best hitter in the game,” as if the 40-50 games he misses have no ill effect on his team.)

Though he’s probably a better long-term option, Barry Zito isn’t much of an upgrade at all over what the Giants lost in Jason Schmidt (213 IP, 3.59 ERA, 180 Ks last year). The big potential for the pitching is the possibility of a breakout year for Matt Cain, a big young power pitcher who holds the key to the organization’s future. With Cain and Zito in place for at least the next five years, San Francisco should at least start every season set at the top of the rotation; getting the rest of the field figured out is going to be a long, long story though. (Too bad they traded Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan, and Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski a few years back. Woops.) Provided Sabean doesn’t make something that’s the exact opposite of that deal, third place is probably the ceiling for this traveling convalescent home.

Arizona (2006: 76-86, T-Fourth Place)
Under the guidance of former Red Sox Assistant GM Josh Byrnes, the Diamondbacks are doing most of the right things in rebuilding their organization for long-term success after many years of mortgaging the future to pay for the present. And while there’s a lot in the pipeline, it's hard to think the D-Backs will have enough pitching or hitting this time around to survive the six-month grind and contend.

Chad Tracy (.281, 20 HR, 80 RBI last season) and Conor Jackson (.291, 15, 79) are the centerpieces of a very young lineup; not exactly a cause for NL pitchers to shake in their boots. Still, the future is bright, as Jackson, shortstop Stephen Drew, and centerfielder Chris Young are all seen as big-time future prospects that will have a chance to mature this season.

There are a lot of rosy projections flying around about how good Arizona's rotation, starting with the outstanding Brandon Webb, can be this year with the return of Randy Johnson to some sort of mythical "comfort zone" that apparently only exists "closer to his Arizona home." Listen, I'm not saying his ERA won't improve with a move to the NL West; it certainly should. But he's 45, coming off back surgery and a 5.00 ERA, and has apparently required injections of synthetic lubricant into his knee before every start for three seasons now. I’m not sure we’ve ever seen a guy PLAY baseball under those circumstances, let alone have a great bounce-back year. How is it possible for so many people to overlook the fact that he's REALLY old and has a ton of mileage on him and probably is done as an elite pitcher? I don't begrudge him the opportunity to pitch and make more millions; he's still serviceable and if a team is willing to pay him as a top-tier pitcher, then good for him. But to think Randy Johnson is going to have a major impact on the NL West really ignores a lot of obvious, time-tested factors that are at play here.

Veteran donut-eater innings-eater Livan Hernandez brought his downward-arcing career to hitter-friendly BankOne Ballpark last year and pitched reasonably well. Expect an ERA approaching 5.00 this year though, as his total performance the last three seasons would indicate. Still, as long as he eats more innings than donuts, Livan should combine with newly-acquired Doug Davis (another 200-inning lock) to be a decent 3-4 combination. And although Johnson, Davis, and Hernandez are all mediocre, the D-backs could well have four 200-inning starters, which is valuable in today’s game, particularly with an unsettled bullpen situation.

Byrnes’ strategy to build a stable rotation with good defense behind it in order to allow a young lineup to develop and a bullpen to take shape is a good one, particularly for a team with some financial issues right now. I still say the Johnson acquisition was dubious at best, particularly given his salary, but this team has a chance to finish above .500 this year and give itself a nice foundation for the future. Contending for the playoffs deep into the summer, though, is likely too much to ask.

Colorado (2006: 76-86, T-Fourth Place)
Heading into their fifteenth season, the Colorado Rockies’ value to Major League Baseball appears to be as a transit point for hitters to inflate their numbers to egregiously high levels and parlay that faux-success into good contracts elsewhere (see Vinny Castilla, Preston Wilson, or Jeromy Burnitz for proof). This is a franchise that has won eighty games only three times and hasn’t finished higher than fourth place in almost a decade. It’s clear they have no chance to attract marquee free-agent pitchers anymore and that any decent pitchers that come up through the system won’t stick around long (Jason Jennings finally managed to put up a sub-4.00 ERA in Coors Field last season, only to be traded because the team knew he’d bolt in free agency after this year.) Last year, the team resorted to putting baseballs in humidors before games to make them heavier and keep scoring down. Whether or not it worked is irrelevant; the point is that when a team has to resort to doctoring the equipment to make baseball playable at its home park, it’s a sign that baseball shouldn’t be played there. It’s a shame because Denver is a good baseball town and Coors Field a gorgeous park, but the game there is a sideshow and no organization can compete without pitching.

Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins will at least make the Rockies fun to watch this year with their continued fireworks at the plate. If Todd Helton bounces back and has a strong spring, he’ll likely be dealt to a contender, possibly the Red Sox, which I believe would be a real mistake on the part of the acquiring team. Several years of declining power numbers are a bad sign anywhere; declining power numbers in Coors Field combined with the worst existing contract in baseball should scare EVERYONE away.

On the bright side, Byun-Hyung Kim could be in their rotation again, which is nice.

Finishing above fifth place would be a big achievement for Colorado.